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Steel Giant Weighed Down By Negatives

Arcelor Mittal (MT), the international steel giant, was reported by Bloomberg last week to be on a drive to augment its development of iron-ore reserves by plowing $6 billion into the development of mines in strife-torn African countries like Senegal, Mauritania and Liberia.

The company believes that it must produce its own iron ore--the key raw material in steel--to control its own destiny. At present, iron ore miners like BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio do Vale Doce (RIO) control 80% of seaborne trade in the material, and Mittal has been forced to accept price surges of up to 85% in the past year. Mittal has a goal of producing 80% of its own ore in the next 10 years.

That's a great idea from a long-range, fundamental point of view. But in the meantime, I'm very concerned about Mittal's recent decline below its 12-month average for the first time since 2005. I've supported MT for three years, but now is the time to sell if you still own it, as a lot of real negatives are weighing on the stock, including the dollar, the threat of a global recession, and then protectionism.

Once the global economy starts to heat up again, MT will be the first company on my team. But for now, it's more than likely headed lower toward the $60 area from its current perch around $73.