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Genco: Navigating Among Lower Oil Prices

As oil prices come down, it becomes more economical to transport goods from China to the United States. Globalization had been threatened by $145 per barrel crude oil, but now it appears on track again.

That's one reason that I have been recommending premier shipping company Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) in my Traders' Advantage letter. Lazard analysts last week raised their estimates due to a "persistently firm" market for ocean shipping. They expect GNK to be exposed to profit-sharing arrangements for its Capesize fleet that rise from $93,000 a day in the second quarter to more than $100,000 a day for the rest of the year. Read more about the fleet here.

Lazard lifted its second-quarter estimate to $1.72 per share from $1.56, boosted its 2008 estimate to $7.11 from $6.76, and boosted its 2009 estimate to $8.85 from $8.62. Do the math, and you'll see the stock is trading at a forward price/earnings multiple of 10 despite expectations of 25% growth. That's cheap. Now throw in the sustainability of its 4.85% annual dividend yield, it's a good buy.

Demand growth is coming from increased demand from China for steam coal and iron ore this winter, and we are also entering the northern hemisphere's high-demand grain season. The downside is that more boats are being floated amid a robust stretch of new shipbuilding, but I think GNK will be able to navigate amid lower prices next year effectively by managing its own fleet and improving efficiencies.