July 11, 2008

Considering Financials? Better Find Your Hazmat Suit

In case you were wondering why there are no financial stocks in my Trader's Advantage portfolio, you should check out the following article I wrote for MSN back in January, "How the Smart Money got it Wrong."

Smart money? Not so much. A review of the one-year results of value-focused funds with some of the best long-term records shows that a virus of total stupidity savaged their ranks as one after another bought into banks, credit card providers, home builders and retailers at bargain-basement prices that seemed too good to be true -- and were.

In the grand scheme of things, little has changed for financials since I first wrote this in January. The "smart money" has been killed on the financials this year ... and with Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) down another 40% today, and Lehman (LEH) down 20%, this is as true today as ever.

Along the same vein, back in December I quoted Jim Rogers as saying that FNM and FRE were technically bankrupt back then and would probably be "nationalized." At the time that I wrote the MSN article, "Stock Market Winter is Moving In," this statement seemed pretty outrageous to most.

With FRE currently trading at under $4, it's far from outrageous now.

What it all comes down to is that if you're thinking about investing in financials, do so with flame-retardant gloves and full hazmat suit.