March 2008 Archives

March 11, 2008

A Terrible Jobs Report

Stocks were all over the map last week, as a terrible jobs report clashed with a new effort by the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity to banks. The moves provided ammunition for both bulls and bears.

The market got off to a poor start last Friday as a result of news that companies had slashed payrolls way, way more than most economists had expected. Jobs are the absolute foundation of the economy, and make everything else happen. When payrolls are rising and wages are higher, consumers buy stuff and corporate earnings swell. When payrolls are falling and wages are stagnant or falling, consumers stop buying stuff and companies suffer. It's really that simple.

That is why the jobs report is considered the king of economic reports and is so heavily scrutinized by federal officials, economists and investors. So what do we see in this one?
Well, I looked it up and down and had a really hard time finding anything positive. It looks very similar to reports that were put out near the start of prior recessions.

The loss in February of 63,000 jobs followed the loss of 22,000 jobs in January. Those increments sound small in an economy with tens of millions of jobs, but it's the change in direction that is important. It's also important to observe that as part of today's report, December's gain was revised downward by 41,000.

Capital goods jobs were the hardest hit, which is a shame because that's part of the real meat of the economy. Construction companies shed 39,000 jobs and manufacturing concerns shed 52,000 jobs. Retailers dumped 34,000 jobs, finance companies dumped 12,000 jobs and professional services companies (e.g. accountants, lawyers and consultants) dumped 20,000 jobs. The job losses were very uniform throughout those sectors, so it wasn't just a few companies with problems. It's endemic.

March 14, 2008

Steel-Eyed View

Arcelor Mittal (MT) is the Luxembourg-based behemoth that is the world's largest steel producer, boasting nearly three times the production capacity of the next largest producer. It has led the consolidation of the world steel industry over the past few years and has leading global market shares in automotive, construction, household appliances and packaging products.

Unlike many smaller players in the steel industry, MT is largely self sufficient with its own iron ore production. The company currently fulfills 50% of its own raw material, and it plans to further its vertical integration to reach the 75% threshold by 2010. Arcelor Mittal also plans to replicate its European distribution network, which completely dominates the continent's markets, and create a supply chain network in North America that will blow its smaller peers out of the water. And while both of these strengths in MT's business model are significant, they are really only complements to its manufacturing power.

With operations in more than 60 countries and steel mills on four continents, MT has become the largest steel producer in the world by both volume and sales. Its mills -- including 64 integrated, mini-mill and integrated mini-mill steel-making facilities -- produce about 138 million tons of long and flat steel annually. The company also operates iron mines, coal mines and coke plants that support its steel making operations in locations around the world. And initiatives to expand and gain new access to iron ore sources in Liberia, Ukraine and Senegal are slated to help the company reach its goal of a 75% self-sufficiency level in the next two years.

On top of having a firm grasp on the steel industry, Arcelor Mittal has benefited over the past couple years from the growing demand for steel in emerging nation -- steel prices have risen steadily, as have the shares of small and large producers, alike. Credit Suisse analysts believe that steel prices are heading even higher, citing the fact that global inventory has remained low while demand has outpaced supply in each of the past six years. And since MT's sales growth has been following steel prices up, healthy earnings growth is projected across all of the company's international operations for 2008.