December 2007 Archives

December 7, 2007

Gilead's Good Vibes

Gilead Sciences (GILD) has had positive vibes lately. The company not only has an ample pipeline of new drugs, but there's also an important world trade angle for the company.

The treatment that has been getting a lot of attention lately is the company's new AIDS treatment. A few weeks ago, the company presented data to the major annual European AIDS conference that showed the benefits of switching patients from twice-daily doses of Combivir, made by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to once-daily doses of Gilead's Truvada. A study showed that a number of side effects were diminished when patients switched to Gilead's HIV treatment: Patients didn't gain as much weight, their hemoglobin levels improved and all of their lipid parameters improved, as well. These kinds of positive results were a key reason why new European HIV treatment guidelines issued last month listed Truvada as the best treatment regiment for new AIDS patients.

This was a one-year study that Goldman Sachs analysts agreed was consistent with results from other studies on switching from Combivir to Truvada. So based on the long-term efficacy and safety of the Truvada regiment, it looks to me that Gilead is set for a steadfast expansion of this franchise worldwide. Next month, we may also learn that Europe has approved Atripla, which is a once-daily combination of Truvada and another Gilead therapy called Sustiva that is also used to treat HIV.

December 11, 2007

Climbing High: Apple

Apple (AAPL) shares have been on a steady uphill climb recently, after hitting a low of $150 earlier in November. The holiday season is definitely one of the best times of year for this personal electronics company, and Black Friday and Cyber Monday proved to be a success for its hot products -- sales were above expectations and inventories weren't overtaxed. The iPhone made its debut in France with a bang the other week, as Apple hosted lavish parties at mobile carrier Orange's new store on the Champs Elysees. Apple is still struggling with French consumer law, which doesn't allow the phone to be sold through one carrier exclusively, but the strong demand shown by Parisians is a good indicator that sales will be big in the country. In the United States, a next-generation iPhone with 3G capabilities is likely to be released in 2008. The hip phone is already high on Santa's lists, and after the holiday season an upgrade will be one more reason for Apple enthusiasts to trade in their basic cell-phones and start surfing the net in style.

December 14, 2007

Copper Refresher

Southern Copper (PCU) is a long-time favorite company of mine. I like this Arizona-based producer of South American copper, molybdenum, zinc and silver because it has strong fundamentals and several growth plans in its pipeline.

While Southern Copper mines and processes a number of different metals, it is primarily a copper producer -- 76% of 2006 revenues were from the production of this reddish metal. And with copper prices surging over the past three years, Southern Copper has reported spectacular results. Just as an example, in the most recent third-quarter, net income increased 20.4% over last year, rising to $627.8 million from $521.6 million. This amounted to earnings per share of $2.13, up from $1.77 the prior year. Strong demand for copper in India and China also helped boost net sales up to $1,606.4 million, a 13.8% increase and $194.2 million higher than the third quarter of 2006.

Plus, the company is continually striving to keep costs down in order to maintain profitability. It does this through its world-class, low-cost portfolio of mines in Peru and Mexico that have benefited from improved economies of scale. Beyond exploration activities, Southern Copper plans to leverage its advantage in the metals sector by increasing the annual copper production at its existing mines over a three-tiered time frame. An increase of 110,000 tons is expected by 2009, with additional increases ranging from 280,000 and 360,000 tons over the coming decade. A new $2.1 million investment program will also increase copper production by 270,000 tons per year by 2011. These projects alone would represent a 39% increase in PCU's current copper production level.

Strikes at three of the company's mines in Mexico, though, have put a cap on recent progress towards its production goals. But the company has been able to offset this loss of revenue with additional volumes of molybdenum and copper from other mines and better molybdenum prices. Together the three mining units on strike contribute less than 14% to the company's revenues, so it shouldn't have any drastic effects on PCU's bottom line. Plus, Mexican labor authorities recently said that progress is being made on a settlement between Southern Copper and the disgruntled workers, and renewed talks are aiming to have new labor contacts in place soon.

December 19, 2007

Good Character: Walt Disney Co.

One of the few stocks that really hasn't been very volatile at all this year is Walt Disney Co. (DIS). It also hasn't offered much in the way of upside either, unfortunately. The most it was ever up this year was around 5% in May, and shares have just languidly lolled around ever since -- never being pulled under by the credit crunch, but not rising as a safe haven, either.

But the key element that I have always liked about Disney is that it has always focused on creating first-rate content. Indeed, Disney does exactly what you would expect from a modern business -- it's never content to make just one product stand on its own. It integrates each product and wrings as much value out of it as possible. New ideas start with the theatrical release of an animated or live-action movie, then you have DVD sales, TV licensing deals, sequels, merchandising and often a theme-park attraction. And, of course, all of the filmed portions add to an outstanding, growing library that can be reused in countless ways at increasing profit margin.

The ESPN brand, in particular, is a total standout for the company. It really is the "worldwide leader in sports," just as the slogan claims, as it has managed to become credible in college and professional football, basketball and baseball, as well as golf, tennis, auto racing and oddball loose ends like poker. It has also spun off additional channels and restaurants, and has created a great website. Really, you could not ask for more. It's pure genius.

And although Disney's film division struggled for awhile after ex-leader Jeff Katzenberg left to form Dreamworks, the purchase in 2006 of Pixar for $7.4 billion has filled that void. On the executive front, the company bumbled around in the latter years of the Michael Eisner era, but it has been rejuvenated under the guidance of new top dog Robert Iger. He was the right man for the job, groomed internally and has won a lot of fans on Wall Street with a reputation for integrity, showmanship and hard work.

So why is the stock still 25% below its 2000 highs, and failing to thrive this year? The problem is that despite all of its good deeds, growth at the company is pretty modest -- with revenues up only around 5% to 7%, or not much of a premium over the pace of the U.S. economy. Margins are improving ever so slightly, but the company remains tied to consumer strength, and that's not such a good thing these days. It's a very capital- and labor-intensive business, so there are only so many expenses that you can cut before you start to chip away at your core. Movie-making remains a very up-and-down business, no matter how much marketers attempt to reduce risk by picking what they believe to be audience-friendly topics, actors and merchandising approaches. And the TV business, despite its strengths, is an ad-driven medium that is subject to weakness as companies husband cash by cooling their marketing budgets.

In short, if there is a short list of large-cap industrial companies that should survive any potential economic downturns with grace, Disney would be on it.

December 21, 2007

Still Lovin' It

I am especially happy to see that more of you are having breakfast at McDonald's (MCD) again. Recently, the company announced that sales at restaurants open at least 13 months rose a whopping 8.2% in November, which was a shocker to many people -- but not me. The gains came on a huge increase in breakfast business, premium roast coffee and chicken snack wraps, not to mention $1 double cheeseburgers. Same-store sales were up even more in Europe -- almost 11% -- aided by a new chicken sandwich in the United Kingdom. Sales in Asia were up 12%, lifted by breakfast sales in China.

All told, McDonald's continues to run on all cylinders. If you haven't been in one lately, go check out a couple in your neighborhood. You may be shocked to see that they are beginning to look much more like a Starbucks (SBUX) than the old tile-floor-and-fluorescent-lights grease pits that you may recall from a decade ago. Many have lots of wood, sconce lighting, flat-panel TVs, much-improved seating and, of course, better coffee. It's just the kind of company that tends to perform well in a weaker economy.