Home Away From Home
Even though it is hard to believe, the migration of individuals from farms to cities is still new and important, and it's happening in many countries, as people trade in their plows for factory coveralls and business suits. At the same time, people are traveling between cities more than ever before, so more infrastructure is being created to meet both the needs of new businessmen and women and travelers.
This is exactly what's happening in China -- Domestic business travel demand to Chinese cities is growing rapidly, but domestic tourism now actually amounts to 70% of all tourism revenues generated in the country, according to analysts. One think tank recently reported that the tourism industry is growing at 10.4% per year and will amount to 8% of China's national GDP by 2017, compared with 5.4% today.
Naturally, these people are not staying in four-star hotels. Or even three-star hotels. They are staying at budget hotels owned by chains have risen to the challenge with awesome service and facilities. Analysts say that 90% of Chinese travelers stay at budget inns where they can find standardized rooms, comfy beds, great locations near business centers, free Internet access, hair dryers and ironing boards for the equivalent of $22 per night. Imagine the Chinese roadsides dotted with the equivalent of brand-new Super 8, Motel 6 and Best Western motels, and you'll get the picture.
Well, that's not exactly how it will look because those are not the main brands of hotel chains in China. The leading brand for inexpensive digs on the road is Home Inns and Hotels Management (HMIN), which listed its shares on the NASDAQ about a year ago and now sports a $1.2 billion market cap. It reported $95 million in revenues in the past 12 months, and $5.4 million in income.
Deutsche Bank analysts report that HMIN is enjoying "exceptionally strong pricing power" in virtually all of its markets because travelers don't seem to mind paying a little bit more for its high-quality rooms, especially in second-tier cities. And the nice thing about an investment in HMIN today is that it has more than just a rise in domestic business travel and vacationers on the horizon. It also has the Olympic Games in August next year, which are hosted in Beijing but will spur traveling to many other nearby cities as well.
The hotel chain has plenty of competition, as analysts report that the number of budget hotels has grown from fewer than 100 in 2003 to around 1,300 this year. Yet, as you can imagine, that is hardly excess supply in a country the size of China. The competition is heating up, but as a leader in the budget hotel business and huge growth plans in the works, I think that HMIN should come out on top as Chinese tourism increases and the Olympic Games near. I expect HMIN to report as much as 13 cents per share in earnings when it reports third-quarter results in November, and my estimate for 2008 and 2009 is 68 cents and $1.08, respectively.






