June 22, 2007

Looking Beyond the Surface

Stocks have been trading sideways for the past week in what appeared on the surface to be some lackluster sessions. But beneath the surface, there have been some pretty interesting developments taking place.

The shocker for many observers was a $1.22 gain for General Electric (GE) on June 19. The General has been one of the weakest stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials for the past five years, and its torpor has been widely cited by bears as one reason that the big index's advance to new highs should not be trusted. So what do the bears have to say now, since GE's 3.2% move took the finance, entertainment and industrial conglomerate to a multi-year high? Well, they're arguing that it doesn't really count because the advance is speculated to have been derived from a big bet by foreign investors who were looking for a safe and stable place to stash petrodollars.

While their argument makes a modest amount of sense, considering that GE recently sold a big chunk of its plastics business to a major Saudi Arabian concern and an investment in the mother company might be considered a bit of payback, it really doesn't matter. What's important is that the latter -- and often most dynamic -- stages of a bull market always include a big boost for laggards. So the ardor for GE, whether foreign or domestic, should be considered a sign of strength and not a harbinger of doom.